Early season games prove pivotal for two teams

The first installment of the Sox-Yanks rivalry is behind us and the Yanks took two out of three at Fenway, but if this opening series has taught us anything, it’s these two teams that are really similar in strengths and will probably be neck-and-neck all season. Over the three games they played against each other, the Sox had 28 hits, the Yanks 27. The Sox scored 13 runs, the Yanks 15.

Sox pitchers struck out 16 batters, the Yanks 18. Even beyond statistics, the two teams were basically identical. The starting aces for both teams (CC Sabathia for the Yankees and Josh Beckett for the Sox) disappointed in game one and left early. The highly touted pitchers in game two were also underwhelming (A.J. Burnett and Jon Lester), and the older guys people weren’t as enthusiastic about from game three (Andy Pettite and John Lackey) pitched surprising well.

The designated hitter for each team (Nick Johnson and David Ortiz) struggled mightily early on. The new centerfielder for each team gave good first impressions (Curtis Granderson and Mike Cameron). Each team’s second basemen (Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia) provided a spark offensively.

Each team featured very random guys you may not have known were on their teams, coming out of the bullpen in big spots (Chan Ho Park and Scott Atchison). As the stats and the course of the games show, the Sox and Yanks played to a virtual tie in their three game series, with the Yanks taking the last and closest game in extra innings. The similarities in this admittedly small sample are pretty amazing.

This was not the way things were supposed to be this year. The Sox and the Yanks were supposed to be a lesson in contrast. The Sox used the new “run prevention” strategy during the off-season that valued pitching and defense. They let Jason Bay go for defensive-minded Cameron and signed Adrian Beltre to take Mike Lowell’s spot at third. Then the front office signed John Lackey to make the rotation one of the strongest in baseball. So what the Sox lacked in offense they made up for in defense, or so says the theory.

The Yanks, on the other hand, were supposed to return as the offensive juggernaught that won the World Series last year. They returned their core group of guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano, while adding Granderson in center field. They seemingly weren’t concerned with defense and didn’t spend much money on pitching or the bullpen, trying to simply out-slug everyone else in their tiny stadium. But, even though they were supposed to be so different, just like they have been a lot in recent years, the Sox and Yanks are really similar and very equally matched.

The “pitching and defense” model they wanted does seem to have some truth to it. The first three games saw truly great defensive plays from Drew, Beltre and Cameron. But the Sox won’t be a weak team that can only win a game if the score is 1-0. This first series has shown even when Big Papi is not hitting, the offense can still be carried by Jacoby Ellsbury, Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis, all of whom are near or in their primes. The pitching and defense seem to be better, but there will be plenty of games with offensive explosions ending with scores in the double-digits.

The Yanks meanwhile did rely on their hitting a good deal in this series. But they also will rely heavily on their big pitching acquisitions from last year, Sabathia and Burnett. While everyone concentrates on the firepower of the Yanks lineup, their defense is not a liability. They have even given light-hitting Brett Gardner playing time in the outfield for his defense. So, while their lineup is their most important weapon, the Yanks will use run prevention to win some games this year too. The two teams being so similar likely means they will be close all year. We shouldn’t read too much into this one series. The final game could have gone either way in extra innings if there was only a little wind to carry some of the Sox fly balls that barely missed being walkoff homeruns, but there is a cloud on the horizon for us Sox fans and that is Jonathan Papelbon. Paps has been one of the most reliable closers in baseball since he came up to the majors, but unfortunately the reason the Yanks took two out of the three instead of the Sox are the two closers. When Paps came in, granted not in a save-situation, I got nervous. Call it paranoia or just bad memories from last year, but sure enough he couldn’t stop the Yanks from scoring.

The next half inning, when the Sox had a chance to tie in the bottom of the tenth, Mariano Rivera came in for the Yanks and just like that, the game was over. Game three shows when two teams are as similar as the Red Sox and the Yankees are, having a dependable closer is often the difference between winning and losing. Right now, I don’t think it’s very close to decide who is a more reliable closer.

But let’s not get too upset. The way baseball usually goes, the ongoing Sox-Yanks rivalry will probably come down to the last series of the season in Fenway again. So even though the Yanks took two out of three, what’s important is who comes through in late September when they will be back at Fenway.  

Sean McKinley can be contacted at smckinley@keeneequinox.com